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Bahlil Ramal 10 Tahun Lagi Kendaraan Listrik Bakal Digantikan Hidrogen

by Ammar Sabilarrohman July 21, 2026

written by Ammar Sabilarrohman

JAKARTA – Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Bahlil Lahadalia, has made a bold projection, asserting that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are poised to emerge as formidable competitors to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) within the next five to ten years. Speaking at the Global Hydrogen Ecosystem 2026 event in Jakarta on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, Minister Lahadalia underscored the accelerating pace of hydrogen technology development, which he believes possesses the transformative potential to redefine the future trajectory of the eco-friendly transportation sector. His remarks highlight a growing sentiment among policymakers and industry leaders regarding the diverse pathways to sustainable mobility, moving beyond the predominant focus on battery technology.

"This is an environmental issue, and my conviction is that, at the latest within 5-10 years, hydrogen will rival battery-based electric vehicles," Minister Lahadalia declared, emphasizing the critical role of environmental considerations in shaping future energy policies and technological investments. The Global Hydrogen Ecosystem 2026 served as a pivotal platform for stakeholders across the energy, automotive, and technology sectors to converge, discuss, and strategize on the global rollout and integration of hydrogen as a clean energy carrier. Indonesia, with its vast renewable energy potential and strategic geographical position, is keen to position itself as a key player in this burgeoning global hydrogen economy.

The Environmental Imperative: Addressing Battery Waste

A cornerstone of Minister Lahadalia’s argument rests on the environmental advantages offered by hydrogen vehicles, particularly their minimal waste footprint compared to BEVs. He articulated that HFCVs do not generate the significant battery waste associated with BEVs, which presents a long-term ecological challenge. The production of lithium-ion batteries, the backbone of current BEVs, requires substantial mining of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. These processes often carry environmental and social costs, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and human rights concerns in mining regions. Furthermore, the end-of-life management of EV batteries poses a complex problem. While recycling technologies are advancing, they are not yet universally scalable or economically viable enough to handle the anticipated deluge of spent batteries. The current global recycling rate for lithium-ion batteries remains relatively low, with many batteries ending up in landfills, where their hazardous components can leach into the environment.

In stark contrast, HFCVs generate only water vapor as a byproduct during operation, offering a truly zero-emission solution at the tailpipe. This fundamental difference positions hydrogen as a potentially cleaner alternative over the entire lifecycle, provided the hydrogen itself is produced using renewable energy sources—a concept known as "green hydrogen." This distinction resonates deeply with nations grappling with burgeoning waste management issues and striving for more holistic environmental sustainability in their energy transitions.

Navigating the Hurdles: Challenges for Hydrogen Adoption

Despite the compelling environmental narrative, Minister Lahadalia candidly acknowledged the substantial challenges that currently impede the widespread implementation of hydrogen technology. These hurdles encompass a spectrum of issues, from technological efficiency and market certainty to the colossal investment requirements and the imperative for robust regulatory frameworks.

A primary concern highlighted by the Minister is the current cost of hydrogen production, which remains prohibitively high when compared to established energy sources like petroleum-based fuels, bioenergy, and even electricity. "Hydrogen is indeed still expensive. This is a challenge in terms of how to obtain more efficient technology so that its price becomes competitive," he remarked. This cost disparity is largely attributable to the nascent stage of green hydrogen production technologies, which rely on electrolysis powered by renewable electricity. While the cost of renewable energy continues to fall, the capital expenditure for electrolyzers and the operational costs associated with large-scale green hydrogen production facilities are still significant. Grey hydrogen, produced from natural gas without carbon capture, is currently cheaper but defeats the environmental purpose. Blue hydrogen, also from natural gas but with carbon capture, represents a transitional step but still relies on fossil fuels. The ultimate goal is to scale up green hydrogen to achieve cost parity.

Beyond production costs, other technological and infrastructural inefficiencies also contribute to the economic hurdles. The energy conversion chain for hydrogen involves several steps: electricity to hydrogen (electrolysis), compression or liquefaction for storage, transportation, and then conversion back to electricity in the fuel cell stack within the vehicle. Each conversion step entails energy losses, impacting overall efficiency. The storage and distribution infrastructure for hydrogen is also considerably more complex and expensive to build out than electric charging networks, requiring specialized high-pressure tanks or cryogenic facilities.

Furthermore, the lack of market certainty and significant upfront investment needs create a classic "chicken-and-egg" dilemma. Automotive manufacturers are hesitant to commit to mass production of HFCVs without a robust refueling infrastructure, while energy companies are reluctant to invest in building hydrogen stations without a sufficient number of vehicles on the road to ensure demand. This interdependent challenge necessitates coordinated efforts from both public and private sectors to kickstart the hydrogen ecosystem. Regulatory support is equally crucial, encompassing not only safety standards for hydrogen handling and storage but also incentive schemes that can level the playing field with established or more mature clean energy technologies like BEVs.

The Global Hydrogen Push: A Timeline of Innovation and Investment

The debate surrounding hydrogen’s potential is not new, but recent technological breakthroughs and renewed global commitment to decarbonization have reignited interest. Hydrogen fuel cells were first developed in the 19th century, with early prototypes of hydrogen-powered vehicles emerging in the mid-20th century. However, challenges related to cost, storage, and infrastructure kept them largely in the realm of research and niche applications.

The 1990s and early 2000s saw a concerted push by several major automotive manufacturers, notably Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai, to develop production-ready HFCVs. Models like the Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity Fuel Cell, and Hyundai Nexo represent the culmination of decades of research, offering competitive range and refueling times similar to gasoline cars. Despite these advancements, widespread consumer adoption has been limited due to the sparse refueling infrastructure and higher vehicle purchase costs compared to BEVs.

Meanwhile, the 2010s witnessed the rapid ascent of BEVs, driven by significant battery cost reductions, improving range, and a rapidly expanding charging network. Governments worldwide, including Indonesia, have rolled out various incentives for BEVs, ranging from tax breaks and purchase subsidies to free parking and dedicated charging infrastructure development. For instance, Indonesia has been actively promoting BEV adoption through policies like import duty exemptions, luxury goods tax reductions, and even the potential for 0% vehicle ownership tax (PKB) in certain regions, as highlighted by related government initiatives. This aggressive push for BEVs has created a substantial lead in market penetration and consumer familiarity.

However, the past five years have seen a resurgence of interest in hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen, as a versatile energy carrier for hard-to-abate sectors (heavy industry, long-haul transport, aviation, shipping) and as a means for long-duration energy storage. Major economies like the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, and the United States have unveiled ambitious national hydrogen strategies, committing billions of dollars to research, infrastructure development, and pilot projects. These strategies often include targets for green hydrogen production capacity, hydrogen refueling station deployment, and the integration of hydrogen into industrial processes and power generation.

Supporting Data and Expert Perspectives

Global consulting firms and energy agencies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Hydrogen Council project significant growth in the hydrogen economy over the coming decades. The IEA’s "Global Hydrogen Review" consistently emphasizes the need for policy support to scale up green hydrogen production and infrastructure. While current global hydrogen production is dominated by grey hydrogen (around 95%), projections indicate a dramatic shift towards green and blue hydrogen by 2030 and beyond, driven by falling renewable energy costs and carbon pricing mechanisms.

Industry analysts often point to the complementary roles of BEVs and HFCVs. BEVs are widely considered ideal for urban commuting, short-to-medium range travel, and light-duty vehicles where charging infrastructure is readily available. HFCVs, on the other hand, offer distinct advantages for heavy-duty trucks, buses, trains, and potentially long-range passenger vehicles, where rapid refueling, long range, and consistent performance under heavy loads are critical. Refueling an HFCV can take just 3-5 minutes, comparable to gasoline cars, which is a significant advantage over even the fastest BEV charging times for long journeys.

Statements from related parties, though not directly quoted in the original brief, can be logically inferred based on industry trends. Automotive manufacturers like Toyota and Hyundai, which have heavily invested in HFCVs, would likely echo Minister Lahadalia’s optimism, emphasizing the technological maturity of their fuel cell platforms and their environmental credentials. Energy companies involved in renewable power generation might express strong interest in developing green hydrogen projects, seeing it as a crucial pathway to utilize surplus renewable electricity and diversify their portfolios. Environmental advocacy groups would likely welcome the push for green hydrogen but would stress the absolute necessity of ensuring that hydrogen production is genuinely clean, warning against the pitfalls of "blue" or "grey" hydrogen masquerading as sustainable solutions.

Indonesia’s Strategic Position and Broader Implications

Indonesia’s foray into the hydrogen discussion is particularly significant given its vast renewable energy potential. The archipelago nation possesses abundant geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind resources that could be harnessed to produce green hydrogen. This presents a dual opportunity: to decarbonize its domestic transportation and industrial sectors and to potentially become a major exporter of green hydrogen and its derivatives to energy-hungry East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea.

The broader implications of a burgeoning hydrogen economy are profound. Economically, it promises job creation across the entire value chain, from renewable energy development and electrolyzer manufacturing to hydrogen production, distribution, and fuel cell vehicle manufacturing. Technologically, it fosters innovation in materials science, catalysts, and energy storage. Geopolitically, a transition to hydrogen could enhance energy security for nations currently reliant on fossil fuel imports, diversifying energy sources and reducing vulnerability to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. For Indonesia, this could mean reducing its dependence on imported fossil fuels, improving its trade balance, and establishing itself as a leader in the regional clean energy landscape.

However, consumer adoption will be a crucial factor. Public perception, safety concerns (despite hydrogen being extensively researched for safety), and the initial cost of ownership will need to be addressed through sustained public education campaigns and attractive incentive programs. The development of a comprehensive national hydrogen strategy, complete with clear targets, investment roadmaps, and a supportive regulatory framework, will be paramount for Indonesia to realize Minister Lahadalia’s vision.

Conclusion: A Dual Path to Sustainable Mobility

Minister Bahlil Lahadalia’s forecast at the Global Hydrogen Ecosystem 2026 underscores a pivotal shift in the global dialogue on sustainable transportation. While battery electric vehicles have undeniably spearheaded the initial phase of the electric revolution, the growing recognition of their lifecycle environmental challenges, coupled with rapid advancements in hydrogen technology, is paving the way for a more diversified approach. Indonesia, by actively exploring and promoting hydrogen, signals its commitment to a multi-faceted energy transition that prioritizes comprehensive environmental benefits and long-term energy security. The next five to ten years will be critical in determining whether hydrogen can indeed overcome its current cost and infrastructure hurdles to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with BEVs, offering a complementary and robust pathway towards a truly clean and sustainable mobility future. The journey ahead demands continued innovation, strategic investments, and collaborative policy-making to transform this promising vision into a tangible reality.

July 21, 2026 0 comment

Business and Finance

Indonesia’s Non-Subsidized Fuel Prices Poised for Potential Reduction Amidst Global Oil Market Downturn, Minister Bahlil Lahadalia Confirms.

by Suro Senen July 20, 2026

written by Suro Senen

Jakarta, VIVA – The Indonesian government is actively evaluating the potential for a downward adjustment in the prices of non-subsidized fuel, following a sustained weakening trend in global crude oil markets. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Bahlil Lahadalia, confirmed on Monday, July 20, 2026, that calculations are underway, and high-level discussions with state-owned energy giant PT Pertamina (Persero) and other private fuel distributors are imminent to finalize the decision. This potential price cut would primarily benefit the segment of the population utilizing non-subsidized fuel, estimated to be around 20 percent of total consumers, often characterized as the more economically capable demographic.

Minister Lahadalia emphasized the government’s cautious approach, acknowledging the inherent volatility of both the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) and international oil benchmarks. The objective is to devise a "wise formula" that simultaneously alleviates the burden on consumers without undermining the operational sustainability and financial health of the country’s vital oil and gas industry players. This intricate balancing act underscores the complexities of energy policy in a nation heavily reliant on fossil fuels and sensitive to price fluctuations. Beyond domestic price considerations, Lahadalia also reported to President Prabowo Subianto on Indonesia’s strategic crude oil and fuel procurement partnerships with various nations, assuring the public of the national energy supply’s security through the end of the year, with a firm commitment to maintaining stable subsidized fuel prices.

Navigating the Global Oil Market: A Delicate Balance

Indonesia, as both a significant oil producer and consumer, is acutely susceptible to the vagaries of the international crude oil market. The price of fuel in the country is broadly categorized into two segments: subsidized and non-subsidized. Subsidized fuels, primarily certain types of gasoline and diesel, are subject to government intervention to keep prices affordable for the majority of the population, often through direct subsidies or tax exemptions. Non-subsidized fuels, on the other hand, are priced closer to market rates, typically reflecting global crude oil prices, refining costs, distribution margins, and applicable taxes. This dual pricing mechanism aims to protect vulnerable segments of society while allowing market forces to influence prices for those with greater purchasing power.

The government’s decision-making process for non-subsidized fuel prices involves a comprehensive assessment of several key indicators. Central among these is the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), which serves as a benchmark for domestically produced crude oil. The ICP itself is influenced by global benchmarks such as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), along with regional supply and demand dynamics. Other factors include the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar (as crude oil is traded internationally in USD), refining costs, transportation and distribution expenses, and the government’s excise duties and value-added taxes (VAT). A sustained decline in global crude oil prices, as observed recently, directly translates to lower procurement costs for refiners and distributors, thereby creating room for price reductions at the pump.

Minister Lahadalia’s announcement signals a proactive stance by the government to align domestic non-subsidized fuel prices with international market realities. This approach contrasts with the more insulated nature of subsidized fuel prices, which are often subject to broader socio-political and economic considerations, including inflation control and public welfare. The forthcoming discussions with Pertamina and other stakeholders are crucial for determining the precise extent and timing of any potential price adjustments, ensuring that the new pricing structure is fair, sustainable, and transparent.

Recent Global Oil Market Dynamics and Their Impact

The "weakening trend" in global crude oil prices, referenced by Minister Lahadalia, has been a notable feature of the international energy landscape over recent months. After periods of significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and post-pandemic demand surges, crude oil benchmarks have shown signs of softening. For instance, Brent crude futures, which had soared past $100 per barrel at various points in the past year, have more recently traded in a range that suggests reduced upward pressure, occasionally dipping below key psychological thresholds. Similarly, WTI crude, the US benchmark, has mirrored this trend, reflecting a broader market sentiment.

Several factors have contributed to this downturn. Foremost among them are growing concerns about a potential global economic slowdown, particularly in major economies like China and parts of Europe. Slower economic growth typically translates to reduced industrial activity and lower demand for crude oil. Additionally, some major oil-producing nations have either increased their output or maintained existing levels, contributing to a more robust supply picture. While OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) has periodically intervened to manage supply, market analysts have pointed to a complex interplay of demand-side weaknesses and stable-to-increasing non-OPEC+ supply, particularly from the United States. Geopolitical developments, while capable of causing sharp price spikes, have not, in the immediate past, generated sustained upward pressure that outweighs the broader economic concerns.

For Indonesia, these global trends directly influence the ICP. When international crude oil prices decline, the cost of importing crude for domestic refining, as well as the opportunity cost of selling domestically produced crude, decreases. This reduction in input costs forms the primary basis for the government’s consideration of lower non-subsidized fuel prices. The government’s vigilance regarding these fluctuations, as noted by Minister Lahadalia, is critical, given that sharp reversals in global prices could necessitate quick policy adjustments to avoid significant losses for fuel distributors or sudden price hikes for consumers.

Government’s Deliberation and Assurance of Stability

The process of adjusting non-subsidized fuel prices is not a unilateral decision but involves extensive consultation and analysis. Minister Lahadalia’s commitment to holding meetings with Pertamina and other private fuel businesses underscores the collaborative nature of this policy formulation. These discussions will likely delve into various technical aspects, including the current stock levels, import schedules, refining margins, and the financial health of the distributors. Pertamina, as the dominant player in Indonesia’s downstream oil and gas sector, holds a critical position in implementing any price changes and ensuring continuous supply across the archipelago.

Lahadalia’s emphasis on finding a "wise formula" reflects the government’s recognition of the delicate balance between market principles and social responsibility. While non-subsidized fuel users are often considered more affluent, sudden or drastic price fluctuations can still impact their economic planning and contribute to broader market uncertainty. Conversely, industry players, including Pertamina, need predictable pricing mechanisms to ensure their financial viability, allowing them to invest in infrastructure, maintain operational efficiency, and secure future energy supplies. The minister’s statement that the non-subsidized segment constitutes "20 percent, these are our able citizens" highlights the government’s differentiation in its approach to energy pricing, where the primary focus of direct intervention remains on subsidized fuels for the broader populace.

Furthermore, Minister Lahadalia provided a crucial update to President Prabowo Subianto regarding Indonesia’s strategic partnerships for crude oil and refined fuel procurement. These partnerships are vital for ensuring the nation’s energy security, particularly given Indonesia’s status as a net oil importer. By diversifying its sources and securing long-term supply agreements, the government aims to mitigate risks associated with global supply disruptions or price shocks. The assurance that "Alhamdulillah we are clear until, God willing, the end of the year, there are no problems" regarding national energy supply is a significant statement, providing confidence to both consumers and businesses. This commitment is further bolstered by the categorical declaration that "insya Allah there will be no increase whatsoever" for subsidized fuel prices, directly addressing a key concern for the majority of Indonesian households and a critical component of the country’s inflation management strategy.

Potential Implications for Consumers, Economy, and Industry

A reduction in non-subsidized fuel prices, if implemented, would have several ripple effects across the Indonesian economy.

For Consumers: The direct beneficiaries would be individuals and businesses that rely on non-subsidized fuels, such as owners of private vehicles (many of which use higher-octane fuels like Pertamax or Pertamax Turbo), certain industrial sectors, and commercial transportation not covered by subsidized fuel schemes. Lower fuel costs would translate into reduced transportation expenses, potentially freeing up disposable income for other goods and services. While the impact on the overall cost of living might be less pronounced than a change in subsidized fuel prices, it could still contribute positively to consumer sentiment and purchasing power for the affected segment.

For the Economy: From a macroeconomic perspective, lower non-subsidized fuel prices could contribute to a moderation of inflation. Although non-subsidized fuel has a smaller weighting in the consumer price index (CPI) compared to subsidized fuel, reduced transportation costs for businesses could lead to lower logistics expenses, which might then be passed on to consumers through stable or reduced prices for goods and services. This could indirectly support the central bank’s efforts to keep inflation within its target range. Additionally, increased consumer spending, fueled by savings from lower fuel costs, could provide a modest boost to economic activity.

For the Industry: Businesses across various sectors, particularly those with significant transportation or operational fuel costs (e.g., manufacturing, logistics, tourism, and agriculture), would welcome lower non-subsidized fuel prices. Reduced input costs could improve profit margins, potentially encouraging investment or allowing for more competitive pricing of their products and services. For fuel distributors like Pertamina, the challenge lies in managing margins while adhering to government directives. While lower crude prices reduce procurement costs, the retail price adjustments must still cover operational expenses, infrastructure development, and ensure a reasonable return on investment. The government’s "wise formula" aims to strike this balance, preventing undue financial strain on these crucial entities.

Broader Energy Policy and Future Outlook

Indonesia’s energy policy is a complex tapestry woven with threads of economic development, social equity, and environmental sustainability. The management of fuel prices is a recurring theme, often sparking public debate and requiring careful political navigation. The government’s continued commitment to stable subsidized fuel prices reflects its dedication to social welfare and poverty alleviation, recognizing that fuel costs disproportionately affect lower-income households. Simultaneously, the willingness to adjust non-subsidized prices based on market dynamics demonstrates a pragmatic approach to economic management, aligning domestic prices with global trends where feasible.

Looking ahead, Indonesia continues to pursue a broader energy transition strategy aimed at diversifying its energy mix and reducing its long-term reliance on fossil fuels. Investments in renewable energy sources, energy efficiency initiatives, and the development of alternative fuels are central to this vision. However, in the near to medium term, fossil fuels will remain a critical component of the nation’s energy matrix, making prudent management of their supply and pricing paramount. The forthcoming meetings and subsequent announcements regarding non-subsidized fuel prices will serve as a key indicator of the government’s responsiveness to global market shifts and its ongoing commitment to balancing economic stability with consumer welfare.

As the global energy landscape remains dynamic, with geopolitical events, economic shifts, and climate change policies constantly influencing supply and demand, Indonesia’s approach to fuel pricing will continue to evolve. The current consideration of non-subsidized fuel price cuts offers a timely illustration of the government’s adaptive strategy, aiming to harness favorable international conditions to benefit its citizens while safeguarding the stability of its vital energy sector. The nation awaits the outcome of these critical deliberations, which will undoubtedly shape economic sentiments and household budgets in the coming months.

July 20, 2026 0 comment