The National Awakening Party (PKB) has officially signaled its intention to nominate the former Chairman of the East Java Nahdlatul Ulama Regional Board (PWNU), KH Marzuki Mustamar, for the upcoming 2024 East Java Gubernatorial Election. This strategic move aims to provide a formidable challenge to the incumbent governor, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, who is widely regarded as the frontrunner in the region. Abdul Halim Iskandar, the Chairman of PKB’s Pilkada (Regional Head Elections) Desk, confirmed during a press conference at the PKB Central Executive Board (DPP) office in Central Jakarta on Wednesday, May 29, 2024, that the party is currently gauging public sentiment and awaiting a final decision from the influential cleric.
The potential entry of KH Marzuki Mustamar into the political arena marks a significant shift in the electoral landscape of East Java, a province known as the traditional heartland of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) organization. PKB, which emerged as the victorious party in East Java during the 2024 Legislative Elections, is leveraging its grassroots strength to challenge Khofifah, who has already secured the backing of several major parties within the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM).
The Strategic Importance of the East Java Electorate
East Java is one of Indonesia’s most critical political battlegrounds. With a population exceeding 40 million and a registered voter base (DPT) of over 31 million, the province serves as a barometer for national political trends. Historically, the "NU vote" has been the deciding factor in provincial elections. Both Khofifah Indar Parawansa and KH Marzuki Mustamar are deeply rooted in the NU tradition, setting the stage for what analysts are calling a "Green vs. Green" contest—a reference to the traditional color of the NU and PKB.
In the 2024 Legislative Elections, PKB solidified its dominance in East Java by securing 27 seats in the Regional House of Representatives (DPRD). This achievement grants the party the constitutional threshold required to nominate a gubernatorial candidate independently, without necessarily forming a coalition with other parties. However, the party leadership remains cautious, emphasizing that the "final touch" depends entirely on KH Marzuki Mustamar’s personal willingness to transition from a religious leader to a political executive.
KH Marzuki Mustamar: A Profile of Religious Influence and Political Resilience
KH Marzuki Mustamar is a highly respected figure within the Indonesian Islamic community, particularly in the "Areman" (Malang Raya) and "Mataraman" (Western East Java) regions. As the leader of the Sabilurrosyad Islamic Boarding School in Gasek, Malang, his influence extends far beyond the pulpit. His tenure as the Chairman of PWNU East Java was marked by a strong emphasis on grassroots empowerment and the preservation of traditional NU values.
However, his political profile rose unexpectedly following his controversial dismissal from the PWNU chairmanship by the Nahdlatul Ulama Central Board (PBNU) in late 2023. While the PBNU cited organizational reasons for the removal, many observers viewed it as a politically motivated move linked to the internal dynamics of the 2024 Presidential Election. Ironically, this dismissal appears to have backfired for his detractors; rather than fading into obscurity, Marzuki’s popularity surged.
Abdul Halim Iskandar noted that the public’s sympathy for Marzuki has transformed into a wave of political support. "He is an extraordinary icon of NU in East Java who became even more popular after receiving unfavorable treatment following his dismissal by PBNU. This has triggered a surge in public aspirations for him to lead the province," Halim stated.
The PBNU Dismissal Controversy and its Political Aftermath
The removal of KH Marzuki Mustamar in December 2023 sent shockwaves through the NU community. The dismissal was perceived by some as an attempt to align the regional leadership with the central board’s perceived political leanings. Marzuki was known for his independent stance and his refusal to strictly follow the central board’s directives if they conflicted with the aspirations of the East Java grassroots.
This rift has created a unique opening for PKB. By positioning Marzuki as their candidate, PKB is not only offering a popular alternative to Khofifah but also providing a platform for those within the NU who feel alienated by the current PBNU leadership. The narrative of the "mistreated cleric" is a powerful emotional tool in East Javanese politics, where respect for religious teachers (Kiai) often outweighs party loyalty.
Confronting the Incumbent: The Khofifah-Emil Powerhouse
Challenging Khofifah Indar Parawansa is no small feat. The former Governor, who served from 2019 to 2024, maintains a high approval rating due to her social welfare programs and her status as the General Chairwoman of Muslimat NU, the women’s wing of the organization. Khofifah has already declared her intention to run for a second term alongside her former deputy, Emil Elestianto Dardak, a young and tech-savvy politician with strong appeal among urban and millennial voters.
The Khofifah-Emil ticket has already garnered official support from the Gerindra Party, Golkar Party, Democratic Party, and the National Alliance Party (PAN). This coalition represents a formidable machine with significant financial and logistical resources. For PKB to compete, they require a figure with equivalent "cultural capital" and religious legitimacy, which is why Marzuki Mustamar is being prioritized.
PKB’s Strategy and Internal Deliberations
During the press conference, Abdul Halim Iskandar emphasized that PKB would not force Marzuki to run. The party respects his status as a "terpandang" (distinguished) cleric. "Even though we are ready, if Kiai Marzuki says ‘please, no,’ we will certainly not force him. He is a monumental figure," Halim added.
Regarding a potential running mate for Marzuki, PKB has indicated that several names are already being considered. According to Halim, many figures have expressed interest in serving as Marzuki’s vice-gubernatorial candidate. However, the party is keeping these names confidential until the Kiai gives his definitive "green light." Speculation suggests that PKB might look for a candidate who can balance Marzuki’s religious credentials—perhaps a technocrat, a young politician, or a figure with strong ties to the nationalist voter base in the "Mataraman" region.
Timeline and Next Steps for the 2024 Pilkada
The 2024 Regional Head Elections are scheduled to take place simultaneously across Indonesia on November 27, 2024. The registration period for candidates is expected to open in late August. This leaves PKB with a narrow window to finalize their ticket.
The timeline of events leading up to this point is as follows:
- December 2023: KH Marzuki Mustamar is dismissed as Chairman of PWNU East Java by PBNU.
- February 2024: PKB wins the most seats in the East Java DPRD elections, securing 27 seats.
- March-April 2024: Khofifah Indar Parawansa receives formal endorsements from the KIM coalition.
- May 2024: PKB officially confirms that Marzuki Mustamar is the primary name under consideration for their gubernatorial ticket.
Cultural and Demographic Battlegrounds in East Java
To understand the impact of Marzuki’s potential candidacy, one must look at the cultural map of East Java. The province is divided into several distinct cultural zones:
- Tapal Kuda (The Horseshoe): The eastern part of the province, heavily influenced by Madurese culture and deeply religious. This is a stronghold for both PKB and NU.
- Mataraman: The western and southern parts, influenced by Central Javanese culture. This area has historically been a stronghold for nationalist parties like PDI-P, but religious figures still hold sway.
- Arema (Malang Raya): Marzuki’s home base, where he enjoys immense personal loyalty.
- Metropolitan Surabaya: A mix of middle-class voters and urban laborers where Khofifah and Emil Dardak have strong visibility.
A Marzuki Mustamar candidacy would likely consolidate the Tapal Kuda and Arema votes, while Khofifah would focus on maintaining her grip on the Muslimat NU network and the urban centers.
Expert Analysis: The Implications of a "Green vs. Green" Contest
Political analysts suggest that a Marzuki vs. Khofifah race would be one of the most intellectually and culturally rich contests in Indonesian history. "This is not just about political power; it is about the soul of the Nahdlatul Ulama in its birthplace," says a local political researcher.
The implications of this race extend to the 2029 National Elections. As East Java is a kingmaker province, the party that controls the governorship will have a significant advantage in mobilizing voters for the next presidential cycle. If PKB manages to unseat Khofifah with Marzuki, it would signal a major victory for the party’s chairman, Muhaimin Iskandar, and a rebuke of the PBNU’s attempts to distance the organization from PKB.
Conversely, if Khofifah wins, it would solidify her position as one of the most powerful women in Indonesian politics, potentially setting her up for a national role in the future.
Conclusion
As the political machinery in East Java begins to accelerate, all eyes are on KH Marzuki Mustamar. His decision will determine whether the 2024 gubernatorial race will be a coronation for the incumbent or a high-stakes battle for the heart of the province. PKB has made its move, offering a platform to a cleric who has become a symbol of resilience. The final decision, however, rests in the hands of the Kiai, whose "final touch" is the only missing piece in PKB’s ambitious electoral strategy. Regardless of the outcome, the 2024 East Java Pilkada is shaping up to be a historic moment that will define the political and religious landscape of the region for years to come.
